[AlbClub] A Vote for More of the Same

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Dear Balkan Watch subscriber:

Below is an op-ed published by Edward P. Joseph and PILPG affiliated expert
Vladimir Matic.  The op-ed, titled "A Vote for More of the Same," appeared
in the *International Herald Tribune* on Friday, February 1.

Thank you,

John Sannar

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*A Vote for More of the Same*
By Edward P. Joseph and Vladimir Matic
*International Herald Tribune*
Friday, February 1, 2008

The  second round of Serbia's presidential elections on Sunday pits the
"pro-Western" incumbent Boris Tadic against the "ultra-nationalist"
challenger Tomislav Nikolic.

Jittery diplomats are worried that a Nikolic victory, combined with the
imminent independence of Kosovo, could mean that Europe will "lose" Serbia
to Russian-backed isolation.  The reality is less dramatic, but more gloomy.

The truth is that Serbia has long  squandered the promise that it would join
its neighbors in gradually jettisoning nationalism and embracing democratic
reform.

After the uprising in 2000 that overthrew Slobodan Milosevic, the reformist
Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic was assassinated in 2003 and eventually
succeeded by an unreconstructed nationalist.

The years since have seen Europe and the United States suckered into trying
to save Serbia from the aptly named Radicals (who were part of Milosevic's
ruling coalition) by supporting "moderate nationalists."

Instead of helping pro-reform and pro-European forces in Serbia, the
strategy has backfired. The perpetual anxiety over what might befall
Serbia's moderates has also been the chief factor in the procrastination
over Kosovo, the emotional albatross that provides a rallying point for
Serbian reactionaries.

True reformers have lost their credibility.  Tadic's Democratic Party has
made so many compromises to avoid conflicts with the nationalists that many
Serbs now reject it as blatantly corrupt.

Privatization has been tainted by the influence of tycoons, party leaders
and the remnants of the power structures of the 1990s.  The country's
security services remain under the  control of the old guard in
collaboration with the arch-nationalist prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica.

This group has a vested interest in keeping Serbia unreformed, nationalistic
and at arms length from the European Union and the United States, since
association with the West would bring law and order, transparency, and an
end to their rule.

Now Russia has reentered the arena, exploiting the Kosovo issue while using
its ample cash to acquire a controlling stake in Serbia's oil and gas
monopoly.  The "moderate" Tadic recently flew to Moscow  with  Kostunica to
sign this sweetheart deal.

Apologists for Serbia point to its economic growth, hard currency reserves
and foreign investment.  But they fail to mention that the industrial
production is at 70 percent of what it was  in 1989, and that growth is
based mostly on money from privatization and imports. Foreign investment is
very modest compared with other transition countries.

Serbia has lost years of productive activity while mired in anachronistic
debates, most related to Kosovo.  The Serbian electorate is now as concerned
about historic budget slashing as it is about ancient history, but it too is
marked by bouts of irrationality, volatility and despair.

Kosovo's inevitable independence hangs heavily  over the political scene,
with the potential to tilt the balance  toward the reactionary. While the
moderate Tadic has been trying to strike deals with the right to ensure his
re-election,  Nikolic has been revamping his image and now claims to support
both improved ties with Russia and Europe, no matter how impossible that
combination is and how insincere the promise may be.

With the electorate largely preoccupied with economic woes and angry over
the imminent loss of Kosovo, Nikolic's  strategy has proved to be shrewd.
He had an impressive lead in the first round of voting.

A Tadic victory on Feb. 3 would, at best, secure the continuity of the
current coalition government -- which means more schizophrenic foreign
policy.

In any case, win or lose, Tadic is unlikely to bring the government down,
since his party benefits handsomely from sharing in power.

If Nikolic wins, Serbia's image will change for the worse.  The damage will
be contained, though, unless the Radical leader manages to disrupt the
current coalition government.

Real change in Serbia can come only through new parliamentary elections,
which are not due until 2011, coupled with a determination among Serbian
voters to rid the country of its nationalist shackles and to join the
community of democracies that still stand ready to welcome them.

The Serbian people have suffered a great deal and deserve better leaders.
But a resolution of their long political impasse is really in their own
hands.

With the electorate not only divided but also confused, the outcome of this
struggle for the soul of the largest, most tortured country in former
Yugoslavia is still uncertain.

*Edward P. Joseph*, a visiting fellow at Johns Hopkins University School of
Advanced International Studies, was previously project director in the
Balkans for  the International Crisis Group.  *Vladimir Matic*, a lecturer
in political science at Clemson University, was an assistant federal foreign
minister in the former Yugoslavia.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/02/01/opinion/edjoseph.php

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