Re: "The Elusive E-book" and the elephant in the room

From: "Jon Jermey"
> Throughout this debate I have been waiting for someone to 
> stumble on the
> elephant in the room -- Joseph is getting close here. 
> Unfortunately most
> of the members seem to suffer an understandable blindness, 
> possibly
> related to the inability of men to see dirt in a room they've 
> been asked
> to tidy up. The real completion is not between print books and 
> eBooks -- 
> this is a minor and increasingly irrelevant sideshow. The 
> competition is
> between free reading matter and paid reading matter.
>
> The Web with all its sites and blogs is essentially a huge free 
> library.
> Your monthly broadband internet connection typically pays for 
> itself in
> a day or two of work-related use. The remaining 28 days are 
> free. Blogs,
> news sites, PDF documents, etc, etc, etc... all of us without 
> exception
> spend far more time reading online than we did a year ago, and 
> we don't
> even notice it. People are not reading less -- they are reading 
> much
> more: they're just not paying for it. In a few years the notion 
> of
> paying for everyday reading matter -- like newspapers and 
> magazines -- 
> will seem quaint and bizarre; only the most outstanding 
> material will be
> able to compete with what's already up for free.
>
> Subscription models and clever marketing may delay the final 
> outcome a
> little, but in the absence of draconian controls, everything 
> worth
> reading is going to make its way on to the Web sooner rather 
> than later,
> because it will be the means by which things are read. This is 
> the 'open
> source' -- billions of web pages, millions of blogs, news 
> reports,
> out-of-copyright books and stories, poetry, spoken word, music 
> and video.
>
> BUY a book/eBook? Come on, get real!
>
> Jon.
>> C'mon, where's open source when you need it?
>>
>> Joseph Harris
>>

;-)   Thanks for the compliment Jon.   I patted myself on the 
back - but dislocated my shoulder.

You have raised good points, and the need to broaden one's 
thinking on this is really important.   But it goes a long way 
beyond your assessment.   The whole is really a question of the 
entertainment and information areas.

You reference to libraries is a good marker of this.   In the UK, 
and I am sure it is reflected in the US, libraries used to be 
well used, though I think the 'market' was fairly narrow, for 
books - entertainment, knowledge, instruction and reference. 
Then they expanded to music and LPs and on to CDs, then videos 
and now DVDs of films, and instructions.   The reference side has 
long had microfilm and copiers and then computers and now 
internet connection.

Library budgets have tended not to expand, and so the competition 
between the users of these different parts is played out very 
visibly as we see book sections shrink and music and film expand, 
while reference becomes increasingly internet based.

Now I would broadly agree [if htis was part of your intention] 
that reading itself has increased because not only do we tend to 
go on the net rather than talk, but there are also more people 
reading o nthe net than generally read in the past.

But I am not sure I agree with your contention that the actual 
pattern of reading has varied.   There was always a fair amount 
of reading for free [the libraries and many pr documents - often 
very innformative and amusing - as well as others] or for a small 
fee [the paid for libraries or the cheap editions of books, and 
the invaluable second hand book shops and stalls].

Surfers tend to read:  emails - and in the past [specially before 
the telephone became ubiquitous] letters were written and read in 
abundance;  shopping information - and that was always free; 
long, long, long selling letters - and tehy would drop through 
hte door, specially from Readers' Digest;  and blogs as a 
substitute for phone calls and cheap magazines!

Surfers also look at photos and videos and films, very visual but 
not books - e- or otherwise.

I am much less certain that certain 'free' content like 
newspapers will continue as is.   This concept is dependent on 
income from advertising since it does affect physical sales of 
papers.   The economic downturn  wil lremind people how uncertain 
a model advertising offers.

This will affect a lot of 'free' offerings like the search 
engines and all their offspins, Amazon and other online 
bookstores, and so on.

There is only one business model that works, and that is the one 
that produces profit - with profit you are still in business 
tomorrow, and able to provide whatever it is you provide.

There will be a few worthies like our Gutenburg Prof, Michael 
Hart, and all the willing helpers, who work very hard to put free 
material in the hands of anyone who wants it.   But as soon as 
the profit prospect disappears how long will Google offer 
something, or Yahoo or any of the small providers and individuals 
who will be less able to find the funds.

It is at that point that free ebooks will prove rare.   Free most 
things in fact.

Now you may argue that the downturn will be soon over and the 
current stus quo will resume.   I happen to be more pessimistic, 
and think we are all in for a rough ride this coming decade. 
Whichever it is I also think the free ebook will be rare and 
tied, as are book club promotions.   The free online paper will 
see subscriptions for its best material - The Financial Times and 
the Wall Street Journal online are subscription offerings 
already.

So I am not convinced that Joe Public will become used to free. 
Even more I am leaning towards the view which suggests that book 
sales generally may reamain strong in bad economic times, since 
they compete well as entertainment with film costs and with 
subscription tv and even outings to the restaurant.

Novels in particular are the great excape experience since they 
encourage the imagination.

Joseph 


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