Re: Neat summary of Google strategy

Me:
>> -- Works DO go into the public domain eventually, so it's not  
>> as if there will never be the possibility of re-issuing them.
>

Chris Smith:
> This is certainly true if you simply don't know how to track down
> heirs who are rightsholders. However - how does this work if
> everyone has lost track of the author? If there is no definitive
> report of an author's death, when does "life+X" start counting
> down?
>
I agree with you completely. And, were I Empress of the World, I would  
undoubtedly reduce the length of copyright to some more reasonable  
number, such as 25 years. But I'm not, so it doesn't matter.

>> -- There are always a LOT of alternative works that could be 
>> used. It's just not very likely that you've found the one and
>> only work that fits your need. It's a classic newbie mistake to
>> think that his or her book is unique, and I think it would be
>> similarly off-base to think that an orphan work is
>> irreplaceable.
>
> This comment has been leaving me with a very uneasy feeling for
> two weeks now. And to be clear - that's because I'm thinking it
> might be *right*, not because I think it is wrong.
>
> If this is generally true - that for any given book, there are
> alternatives that fit the role to some degree - then it's likely
> going to be true for any book -- even new ones.

It already is. Last year, in the US alone, there were about 500,000  
new titles published. The year before, it was 400,000. And they're  
already competing against non-book sources. (And losing, but that's  
another issue.)

Even when it was a relatively small 50,000 (back in the Stone Age,  
when I first started to hold responsible positions in publishing), it  
meant that you had to compete against overwhelming odds, and there was  
NEVER a book that had no direct competition.


> Marion, your long-standing question about what to do if and/or
> when free ebooks can't drive the sales of paper (because
> electronic has become the primary mode) starts to look a little
> different. The low and lowering cost of electronic means that a
> new book - ebook or paper - is competing against an ever
> increasing swell of material of all types. The question still
> stands, and is important - but the reason we get to that point is
> much more about the entire range of creative media, not just
> because of ebooks.

My intended point was that e- will have to take the place of the  
paperback as the major driver of revenues in book publishing.

My question is more about how we change the expectation that "e-  
should be free." Free books, used as a marketing tool, have been  
around for decades. (ARCs and galleys were old when I started in  
publishing.) Free e-books will drive sales of paid books (e- and p-)  
only as long as the expectation is that the paying for books (or other  
creative productions) is reasonable.

THAT's what I think we need to work on, if we're to  continue to have  
a vibrant creative community.

And, yes, I know that there are a lot of amateurs who are happy to  
work for accolades. Unfortunately, the vast majority of them are  
amateurs for a reason at the moment. I don't think that many of them  
will ever have the time to raise their technique to the level we  
currently demand of pros in any future world, unless we let their work  
earn them a living wage. And I don't see any viable way to do that  
unless we sell the copies.
>
> Unless we re-write copyright to *force* people to pay creators to
> create (whether or not they want the results), then strong
> copyright will only hasten the downfall of relatively expensive
> works. Of course, rampant copying will also hasten the downfall
> of expensive works. But in the face of such economic pressure,
> perhaps nothing can keep the value of works up. (I've yet to see
> a law that can oppose strong economic pressure.)

Perhaps laws can't oppose a societal definition of "right and fair,"  
but perhaps we should all consider whether we, as individuals can help  
turn the tide, by raising the issue with people who are thoughtlessly  
going with the flow of piracy.

>
> Most people will pay less. Most creators will earn less. Creators
> will either accept less or stop creating. Those creators
> accepting less might very well find that there are many more
> outlets for their creativity, and other ways - yes, such as
> advertising

Almost every single recent attempt to make money by layering in ads on  
top of content has failed miserably, if not necessarily publicly.

And giving away music in the hope of making the revenue up with live  
concerts hasn't worked well for most musicians below the top tier,  
either. I think the simple, direct choice of paying for what you want  
(the content, be it a novel, a how-to, or a song) is still the obvious  
way to be fair to all.

> - to tap into the flow of value. But that still may
> not make up for the losses elsewhere.
>
> In such an environs, ebooks will almost certainly work very well.
> But - that's hardly the point here, is it?


In such an environment, ebooks will probably disappear along with  
everything else, IMNHO, UNLESS we can get people to shift toward an  
ethos that demands buying copies of them, as they currently buy copies  
of p-books.


Marion Gropen
Gropen Associates, Inc.
By-The-Question Consulting,  Tools for Publishers, & Classes
www.GropenAssoc.com
Her blog: www.GropenAssoc.com/blog





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